In the coming days, Qatari mediators are set to meet with Hamas leaders to present the proposals discussed at the Doha Summit. The objective is to ascertain whether Hamas is prepared to return to the negotiation table for what is known as the “Small Deal.”
This plan includes an Egyptian proposal and a Russian deal, both of which were discussed during a meeting between Mossad chief David “Dedi” Barnea and Qatari officials. Israel is awaiting Hamas’s response to the proposals presented by the mediators but has expressed reservations on some issues.
Proposals on the Table:
The Egyptian Proposal: This suggests the release of four Israeli captives in Gaza in exchange for a 14-day ceasefire and the release of Palestinian detainees.
According to the plan, a 48-hour ceasefire would be declared, followed by negotiations for a permanent ceasefire. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown partial approval, agreeing to the release of four captives for a 48-hour ceasefire in Gaza, without releasing Palestinian detainees.
The Second Proposal: Discussed by Mossad chief Dedi Barnea at the Doha summit, this proposal suggests releasing 11-14 captives in exchange for a 30-day ceasefire.
Israel would also be required to release Palestinian political prisoners, with the exact number to be determined during negotiations. According to Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth, the plan does not include Israeli concessions or withdrawals.
Qatar and the US have drafted a plan guaranteeing Hamas that Israel will eventually withdraw completely from Gaza, surpassing Netanyahu’s refusal to withdraw. Sources familiar with the details believe Israel will be asked to release more detainees, including those serving life terms.
The Russian Proposal: This involves releasing two dual-national captives, Alexander Troufanov and Maxim Herkin.
Mousa Abu Marzouq, Deputy Head of Hamas Political Bureau, visited Moscow last week and held talks with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov regarding the release of the Russian citizens. Abu Marzouq stated that the priority would be to release them first, though it remains unclear whether this would be separate or part of one of the pending deals.
Senior sources familiar with the developments doubt the deal can be completed before the US elections, despite President Biden instructing his administration to attempt a “small deal” before the elections.
Estimates suggest that after the US elections, Netanyahu will face intense pressure from either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, both of whom will demand he seek to end the war in the north and south (Lebanon and Gaza) and enhance the ceasefire outlines, the sources added.
Israel is holding more than 11,500 Palestinian detainees, among them at least 95 women and 270 children, and 3,398 who are held under the arbitrary Administrative Detention order without charges or trial. This number includes 4,700 laborers from the Gaza Strip, who were staying in the West Bank.
The number of Palestinians whom the Israeli soldiers abducted in the Gaza Strip is estimated to be 4,000, largely held at Sde Teiman military base and interrogation center, as Israel refuses to release detailed information about them, including their health conditions.
Before October 7, 2023, the number of Palestinian detainees, largely from the occupied West Bank, including occupied Jerusalem, was about 5,200.
